Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 25, 2021 5:17:21 GMT -6
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2021
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM
PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.
..WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
AT DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME REORGANIZED WITH A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS
WITHIN THIS LINE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AND WILL DEPEND UPON DESTABILIZATION. IF MORE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, THEN A SEVERE THREAT COULD
DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS OUTLOOK KEEPS THAT AREA AT A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING THE EVENING,
REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT IS FORECAST WITH THIS LINE BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS CONCERNING INSTABILITY. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD CONTINUE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE.
..BROYLES.. 10/25/2021